Spain continues to outpace Eurozone growth and enters a new phase in search of higher productivity
Spain reaches the midpoint of 2026 in a relatively robust state compared to the Eurozone, driven by dynamic employment and consumer spending, healthier private-sector balance sheets, and more diversified foreign trade. These are some of the findings published in the Esade Economic and Financial Report for the second half of 2026, produced with support from Banco Sabadell and led by Esade professor Omar Rachedi. According to current forecasts, Spain’s GDP will grow by some 2.2%–2.3% in 2026, compared to approximately 1.1% in the Eurozone. In other words, Spain is expected to grow at almost twice the pace of the Eurozone. Furthermore, the baseline scenario suggests that this forecast might be adjusted slightly upwards between now and the end of the year.
From driving demand to constraints of supply
The report suggests that Spain is entering a new phase of the economic cycle. After several years of growth underpinned by employment, consumer spending, tourism, European funds, demographic increase and healthier private-sector balance sheets, the challenge is now to consolidate these gains by increasing productivity. In this respect, the authors emphasize that although Spain’s proven resilience mitigates its vulnerability to external shocks, it is no substitute for increasing potential growth by means of investment, productivity, and supply-side capacity.
In the chapter on current economic conditions by Josep M. Comajuncosa, professor at Esade professor, and Manuel Hidalgo, professor at Pablo de Olavide University and senior fellow at EsadeEcPol, the authors point to a gradual normalization of growth by 2027 toward rates closer to the potential of Spain’s economy. According to the report, the unique feature of this phase is that the progress made so far is not, in itself, enough to guarantee the next stage of growth. The Spanish economy continues to depend more on greater volume than on sufficient improvements to productivity, while several recent drivers of growth are simultaneously beginning to wane: European funds continue to contribute to growth in 2026, although they are now in their final stage; tourism has reached levels that are hard to better; fiscal wiggle room will be increasingly small; and the labor market is approaching a point where further reductions in unemployment will be more and more difficult unless productivity increases.
Against this backdrop, the report recommends focusing on supply-side policies and moving towards a more robust, competitive production model. To this end, it suggests increasing investment in tech capital and R&D&i, bringing on-going training into line with the new demands of the labor market, facilitating the scaling-up of SMEs, and deploying the remaining European funds to achieve a real multiplier effect. The challenge, say the authors, is no longer merely to withstand shocks but to increase the economy’s capacity for sustained growth.
Energy as an infrastructure of competitiveness
The 39th edition of the Esade Economic and Financial Report, entitled “Energy Capabilities for a New Economic Era” focuses specifically on the role of energy, not as just another economic sector but as an infrastructure of fundamental importance for security, competitiveness and strategic self-reliance.
The report highlights Spain’s significant advantages in renewable energy, regasification capacity and a relative improvement in industrial energy prices. However, it also points out that this potential must create a tangible advantage for the economy as a whole. Although green electricity makes a considerable contribution, electricity pricing is still dictated by gas, an indication that the energy transition depends not only on the deployment of renewables but also on the ability to deliver clean, competitively-priced, stable electricity to the entire production system.
In order to transform this energy capacity into competitiveness, the authors emphasize the importance of bolstering grids, storage and electrical interconnections, together with long-term contracts and stable price signals to speed up the electrification of the economy. In this respect, a dearth of electrical interconnections is still a bottleneck that prevents Spain from taking full advantage of its renewable energy potential.
From a dreaded recession to persistent inflation
In the international scenario, the report underlines that the world economy has proven to be more adaptable than expected, driven by the upsurge of investment in technology including particularly AI, the restructuring of global supply chains, and the resilience of the United States and much of Asia.
However, as the report explains, the international landscape is not the same as it was a few months ago. Tense geopolitical and energy scenarios have led to growth forecasts for 2026 to be revised slightly downwards. Against this backdrop of greater uncertainty, the baseline suggests global growth of 3.1% in 2026, with an increase of 1.8% for advanced economies and 3.9% for emerging and developing economies. Meanwhile, global inflation is anticipated to stray from moderate rates towards 4.4% in 2026 compared with 4.1% in 2025: a forecast 0.6 percentage points higher than the rate employed by the International Monetary Fund itself at the beginning of the year.
The authors point out that tension in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz are driving energy prices higher and reducing wiggle room for central banks. In these circumstances, the main risk is not merely a reduction in economic activity, but also the possibility that inflation will remain high for longer, with the ensuing impact on monetary policy and fiscal decisions.
In this landscape, the report recommends consolidating some of the best practices employed in recent months, such as improving productivity by means of AI, adapting companies to changes in international trade, and restructuring supply chains. It also recommends keeping an eye on new areas of vulnerability, some of which stem from these very same strengths: the concentration of the AI ecosystem in a few hands, uncertainties about its monetization capacity, the energy needed for digitalization, cybersecurity risks and the evolution of financial markets and public borrowing.
The 39th edition of the Esade Economic and Financial Report, prepared with support from Banco Sabadell, features articles by Marta Suárez-Varela, senior economist at the Bank of Spain, entitled “Energy, supply security and competitiveness: what we have done since the invasion of Ukraine and what is needed from now on”; Pedro Linares, professor at the Pontifical University of Comillas and senior fellow at EsadeEcPol, who penned “The challenges of the energy transition: self-reliance, efficiency and the decarbonization of transport, industry and buildings”; and Gonzalo Escribano, director of the Energy and Climate Program at the Real Instituto Elcano and professor of Applied Economics at UNED, the author of “Fossil reconfiguration and strategic decarbonization after the Iran war”. Enrico Bergamini, a postdoctoral researcher at Esade’s Economic and Financial Research Group, contributed the last article in the discussion section, entitled “Energy and tech crises are transforming green industrial policies into an existential question for Europe.”