The Guardian - Kim Willsher / French government faces no-confidence vote on Wednesday

• The French government appears likely to fall this week after leftwing and far-right parties lodged motions of no confidence in response to the prime minister’s decision to push through a belt-tightening budget without a vote.  

• If passed by MPs, the motions, which will be put to a vote in the national assembly on Wednesday, will bring down the government and force Michel Barnier’s resignation after only two and a half months. 

• The New Popular Front (NFP), a leftwing coalition that includes the Socialists, Greens, hard left France Unbowed and the Communist party, had already warned it would put forward a motion to censure the government if it used the controversial “49.3” constitutional clause to force through the social security legislation. 

• Together, the NFP and the RN have enough MPs to topple the government – the first time a French government has been dispatched in such a way since 1962. It would leave both the EU’s traditional powerhouses, France and Germany, in political flux just weeks ahead of Donald Trump re-entering the White House.

    
Financial Times - Henry Foy / Nato chief warns Donald Trump of ‘dire threat’ to US if Ukraine pushed into bad peace deal

• Nato’s new secretary-general has warned Donald Trump that the US would face a “dire threat” from China, Iran and North Korea if Ukraine is pushed to sign a peace deal on terms that are favourable to Moscow.    

• Rutte noted the risks from Russia supplying missile technology to North Korea and cash to Iran. In an apparent reference to Taiwan, he said that Chinese President Xi Jinping “might get thoughts about something else in the future if there is not a good deal [for Ukraine]”. 

• Rutte took office in October with a strong record of working successfully with Trump during his first presidency. The former Dutch prime minister was integral to a 2018 push for Nato allies to spend more on defence in order to head off a threat by Trump to withdraw US support for the alliance.

• Rutte will chair a meeting of Nato foreign ministers in Brussels on Tuesday where Ukraine’s top diplomat has called for the country to be given a formal invitation to join the alliance, something that the US and Germany, in particular, have ruled out in the near future.

   

Bloomberg - Sam Dagher / Syria’s Assad and Iran Face Tough Choices as Rebels Advance

• Syria-based rebel forces are seeking to build on recent gains and capture more territory controlled by the government, raising the question of whether President Bashar Al-Assad can hold onto power. 

• There are a lot of unknowns in how the latest twist in Syria’s 15-year conflict will play out, and much depends on the agendas of powerful external actors as much as the internal enmities that have influenced events. For Assad, 59, that means Iran, which considers Syria part of its so-called axis of resistance against Israel and the West and has for years provided the bulk of ground forces, and Russia, an old Cold War-era ally that stepped in to save him in 2015. 

• A major game changer would be if Russia, which has an airbase in the country, commences a sweeping aerial bombardment against the rebels like it did nine years ago. The difference this time is that Russia is occupied with its war in Ukraine.

• Before the ongoing rebel offensive, Assad was being pressed by Arab states, Turkey, Western powers and even Moscow to undertake political reforms that would give the opposition a seat at the table, facilitate the return of refugees and stem the flow of drugs to neighboring states. 

               
Reuters / China bans exports of gallium, germanium, antimony to US

• China will ban exports of 'dual-use items' related to gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials to the United States that take effect from Tuesday, the commerce ministry said. 

• It also requires stricter review for end-user and end-usage for graphite dual-use items shipped to the U.S. 

• The move comes after the United States launched on Monday its third crackdown in three years on China's semiconductor industry, curbing exports to 140 companies, including chip equipment maker Naura Technology Group.

   

Our opinion reads for today:

• Al Jazeera - Abdelghany Sayed / Israel and the ICC: A legal scholar’s response to The Washington Post 
• Foreign Affairs - Nancy Okail and Matthew Duss / America Is Cursed by a Foreign Policy of Nostalgia