Financial Times - Max Seddon and Anastasia Stognei / Russia struggles to tame inflation in ‘overheating’ war economy

• Russia’s central bank is expected to raise its key interest rate beyond its record of 21 per cent on Friday, as policymakers struggle to tame inflation in what Vladimir Putin described as an “overheating” war economy.

• Elvira Nabiullina, the hawkish governor of Russia’s central bank, the CBR, is facing an increasingly loud chorus of criticism from officials and oligarchs who say her efforts to rein in inflation are stifling business. Her persistence in rising rates even as inflation is sliding out of the bank’s control highlights how policymakers have failed to balance irresolvable priorities during the war, according to senior Russian businessmen and economists.

• Many economists forecast inflation as high as 10 per cent by the end of 2024, driven by the splurge on defence spending and a corresponding boom in the consumer sector. The CBR estimates annual inflation at 9.6, far beyond its target of 4 per cent.

• Ordinary Russians are the ones who have felt the greatest financial strain. Across the country, the price per square metre of housing has soared since the start of the war by 30 per cent, according to SberIndex, a data set compiled by Russia’s largest state-owned bank.

    
Bloomberg - Stephen Stapczynski / Trump Threatens Tariffs If EU Doesn’t Buy More US Oil and Gas

• President-elect Donald Trump has threatened the European Union with tariffs if its member countries don’t buy more American oil and gas.

• “I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!,” he said on Truth Social.

• The bloc was largely caught off-guard in 2017 when Trump, citing national security concerns in his previous term as president, levied tariffs on European steel and aluminum. Since then, the EU has reinvented its trade doctrine and expanded its toolbox, giving it a range of options to counter coercive practices.

•  “We are well-prepared for the possibility that things will become different with a new US administration,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said after a Group of Seven meeting in Italy in late November. “If the new US administration pursues an ‘America first’ policy in the sectors of climate or trade, then our response will be ‘Europe united.’”.

  
   

Al Jazeera / Syria’s interim gov’t pledges justice, jobs and security in ‘new era’

• Syria’s new rulers have pledged to create special tribunals for those who have “committed crimes against Syrians” under deposed President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, according to the interim government’s spokesman.

• In an interview with Al Jazeera’s Osama bin Javaid, Obaid Arnaut said a key part of the new government’s mission as they usher in a “new era” is to re-establish people’s trust in the rule of law and the country’s judicial system.

• In a bid to quell widespread anger over the economic situation, Arnaut confirmed that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani, would increase salaries of public servants by up to 400 percent.

• Regarding Israel’s repeated attacks, Arnaut said the new government’s approach “will be outlined in the near future”, without providing more details.

   

Reuters - Shivam Patel / Fighters from Myanmar civil war aggravate bitter ethnic conflict in India

• Indian militant groups that took refuge in Myanmar and fought in its civil war have been streaming back across the border to Manipur state this year, Indian security officers said, inflaming the bitter 19-month ethnic conflict there with weapons and battle-hardened cadres.

• This has led to an increase in violence between Manipur's dominant and mostly Hindu Meitei community and the mainly Christian Kuki tribes - a conflict that critics say is the biggest law-and-order failure of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 11-year-old government. Since May 2023, some 260 people have been killed in the fighting and more than 60,000 displaced.

• Nine Indian military and police officers who spoke to Reuters, plus several politicians and rebel sources in Myanmar, described a conflict that is spreading to new areas as militants from the rival groups come across the border to Manipur.

• Fighters are equipped with more sophisticated weapons, including rocket launchers, and 20 people were killed in fighting in November alone. In response, the federal government announced it was deploying 10,000 more soldiers in Manipur, taking the total number of troops to nearly 67,000 in addition to the 30,000-strong police force.

   

Our opinion reads for today:

• Foreign Affairs - Karam Shaar and Benjamin Fève / The Path to a Better Syria

• Project Syndicate - Yanis Varoufakis / The West Is Not Dying, but It Is Working on It

• Foreign Policy - Lili Pike and Christina Lu / What America’s New Climate Targets Mean for the World

• Politico - Matthew Karnitschnig / Europe’s economic apocalypse is now