Pollution in Spain: its economic and health impacts

Pollution (particles from a series of substances suspended in the air) has a scientifically identified negative effect on health. We present here an estimate of this effect for Spain based on data and models from the European Environment Agency, to which we add our own economic impact calculation.

According to estimates based on models from the European Environment Agency:

• Premature deaths in Spain that can be associated with pollution through respiratory or cardiovascular diseases that would have been avoided in the absence of these pollution levels amounted to 20,900 in 2021.
• Catalonia and Madrid stand out, with similar levels between them and higher than the rest in mortality associated with pollution: almost 50% higher than the next autonomous community.
• Mortality associated with air pollution remains high, but the trend has been downward since the 34,000 premature deaths in 2007. If the trend does not change, Spain would meet the target of reducing premature deaths from pollution set by the EU for 2030. It is worth noting that the progression is general, as all provinces follow this trend.
• City by city, we show that all provincial capital cities have experienced reductions in PM2.5 concentrations between 26% and 63% over the same period. However, 20 of them have not yet reached the levels set by European regulations.

In the European context:

• Comparing pollution levels of Spain’s autonomous communities (CCAA) with other equivalent regions of the continent, they appear in a relatively good position: better than Eastern Europe, Northern Italy, or the Benelux, and comparable to France or Germany, although behind Scandinavia or Portugal.
• Among the 16 EU cities with more than 1 million inhabitants, Madrid and Barcelona are in positions 14 and 8 in air pollution, respectively.

Using methodologies established in the literature based on previous estimates by the OECD and certain assumptions detailed in this brief, we calculate an approximate economic impact associated with PM2.5 concentrations, the pollutant with the greatest effect on mortality, from 2014 to early 2020:

• If pollution were below the levels set by the WHO as maximum recommendable (5 micrograms per cubic meter of air), the Spanish economy could have experienced significantly higher growth, up to 5% more in the analyzed period. This is slightly lower than the average estimated impact in the EU (6%), where Italy (9%) and Eastern Europe (10%) stand out.
• Despite widespread reductions over the last decade and a half, two CCAA remain above the national average economic impact: Asturias and Catalonia. Until 2027, it is expected that this potential GDP volume with lower pollution will remain particularly high in both and also in Andalusia.

In the methodology used by the OECD, most of this potential would be achieved by avoiding productivity losses associated with increased absenteeism and, to a lesser extent, the effect on ecosystems.

It is important to frame the above in the fact that Spain has become part of the group of countries where GDP growth has decoupled from the evolution of PM2.5 emissions: since 2005, the latter has halved while the economy has remained stable (with its own recession cycles from the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic).

Understanding from this data that reducing pollution would offer both health and economic benefits, we ask how resources can be more efficiently allocated to this objective. We propose:

• Focusing measures and especially investment in areas with the greatest potential: in Spain, these are waste management, the residential sector (heating systems), and industry, which are the main sectors emitting PM2.5.
• Allocating resources to these objectives, considering air quality as a public good to protect. For example, through the progressive elimination of direct subsidies granted to fossil fuels, as well as taxation that better reflects the negative impacts explored here.