European (geo)politics in times of Covid-19

EsadeEcPol Insight #9

Executive summary

• What will be the impact of the coronavirus on European (geo)politics? This policy insight argues that it is necessary to accurately identify the trends that were taking place before the arrival of the pandemic to understand its potential political consequences.
• Rather than making general predictions about the impact of the virus, we suggest key questions focused on the profound political transformations that Europe was already experiencing at all levels.
• On the national level, the main issue is to what extent the pandemic will affect the major political realignments that were taking place in political party systems.
• As for the European Union (EU), the key question is not so much whether there will be more or less integration, but the speed and scope of such process, and its consequences for the battle between pro-European and Eurosceptic forces.
• The most important unknown regarding geopolitics is how Covid-19 will affect Europe’s ability to adapt to the increasing competition among global powers.